January 2009 Archives

If we fail to heed the warning of our top scientists, if we fail to adopt the low-cost strategies need to avert the incalculably high-cost consequences (widespread desertification, large and rapid sea level rise, loss of the inland glaciers, extinction of most species, fatal acidification of the ocean, and on and on), nobody is going to be writing books labeling us "the greatest generation." We will at best be "the greediest generation" and perhaps even "the first unpatriotic generation" since we were the first who would not bear any burden or pay any price to preserve life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness for the next generation.

But that is how future generations will label us. We haven't failed yet. Should we question the patriotism of deniers? That is a tough call, made even tougher since they question our patriotism even as we fight to save their children and their children's children from their own ignorance and indifference.

I suppose the answer is "no," we shouldn't stoop to their tactics -- readers can weigh in with other views -- but I will say that if we are going to save this great nation, progressives are going to have to fight back much harder against the despicable actions of the deniers who practice polluter appeasement. Whatever we are currently doing, it ain't enough.

The time to act is yesterday.

 

The answer is both: the day breaks both to doom and a hopeful dawn.

A good friend writes of his internal debate on global warming.   Are we doomed or is there reason for hope?

We seem to agree that - at least for now - Obama is the very best leader if we want to see any of our DNA make it into the future.  Global population decimation is inevitable.  Decimation has a dual meaning; it can be 1-out-of-10 or nine-out-of-ten.   By the end of the century, some scenarios, derived from IPCC models,  say that our global population of 9 billion will probably be one billion - and only if we are very lucky and smart.  Starting now

Although James Lovelock may stand firmly in the alarmist wing of climatologists, nothing he says is impossible.  All is within model scenarios.  As you can see from the combined graphic on the site  http://localsteps.org/howbad.html   Science can describe the projections for how bad it will be, we didn’t really know when things might unfold, but now with early arctic melting - we are starting to know the when.

Every day, I am ever more astounded that there is not rioting in the streets over this issue, because soon enough (years hopefully) there will be food riots, and refugee riots, and climate refugees etc.

“If your children ever found out how lame you really are, they’d murder you in your sleep” -Frank Zappa

Its a pity that Obama is so nice.   Human civilization needs a Climate Czar with the ruthlessness of a Stalin.  Otherwise we will have to wait until a sufficient number of our citizens, along with other global citizens, get the message, learn the science and decide to act to assure the future of human life.

But I am buoyed by the recent reports and the direction we are going.   The NOAA report the other day had some power.  Dr Hansen always has something new to say.  Be sure to check  www.climateprogress.org for the news and the policy stuff.   And www.realclimate.org for the science overview to a lay audience.   We are in a time of rapid change now.

We are in constant rumination over doom or hopes.   The astounding enormity of  our colossal blunder is so difficult to apprehend.  Denialism is a normal psychological reaction.  In order to survive humans have to act with ruthless intelligence and logic.  If we are lucky and smart now, in 1000 years, it will be a new species that emerges

Personally,  I suppress my anger, but refuse to suppress the truth.   One neighbor is a retired professor of Atmospheric sciences, who tells me that many scientists have shrugged and moved on with their lives - enjoying their days. They no longer speak out.   Scientists think it is up to politics and human will-power now.  They have done their job, and really shouted all they can.

Yep.  Both doomed and optimistic.   Now we can debate how much of each.

And our children’s children cannot escape it either.

Even if we suddenly halted all CO2 and reverted to the pure state of Adam and Eve, the damage of today will last a millenium.  CO2 causes irreversible damage for at least 1000 years

Interview with NOAA senior scientist Susan Solomon

The original NOAA press release Jan 26, 2008

New Study Shows Climate Change Largely Irreversible

January 26, 2009

A new scientific study led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reaches a powerful conclusion about the climate change caused by future increases of carbon dioxide: to a large extent, there’s no going back.

The pioneering study, led by NOAA senior scientist Susan Solomon, shows how changes in surface temperature, rainfall, and sea level are largely irreversible for more than 1,000 years after carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions are completely stopped. The findings appear during the week of January 26 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

“Our study convinced us that current choices regarding carbon dioxide emissions will have legacies that will irreversibly change the planet,” said Solomon, who is based at NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colo.

“It has long been known that some of the carbon dioxide emitted by human activities stays in the atmosphere for thousands of years,” Solomon said. “But the new study advances the understanding of how this affects the climate system.”

The study examines the consequences of allowing CO₂ to build up to several different peak levels beyond present-day concentrations of 385 parts per million and then completely halting the emissions after the peak. The authors found that the scientific evidence is strong enough to quantify some irreversible climate impacts, including rainfall changes in certain key regions, and global sea level rise.

If CO₂ is allowed to peak at 450-600 parts per million, the results would include persistent decreases in dry-season rainfall that are comparable to the 1930s North American Dust Bowl in zones including southern Europe, northern Africa, southwestern North America, southern Africa and western Australia.

The study notes that decreases in rainfall that last not just for a few decades but over centuries are expected to have a range of impacts that differ by region. Such regional impacts include decreasing human water supplies, increased fire frequency, ecosystem change and expanded deserts. Dry-season wheat and maize agriculture in regions of rain-fed farming, such as Africa, would also be affected.

Climate impacts were less severe at lower peak levels. But at all levels added carbon dioxide and its climate effects linger because of the ocean.

“In the long run, both carbon dioxide loss and heat transfer depend on the same physics of deep-ocean mixing. The two work against each other to keep temperatures almost constant for more than a thousand years, and that makes carbon dioxide unique among the major climate gases,” said Solomon.

The scientists emphasize that increases in CO₂ that occur in this century “lock in” sea level rise that would slowly follow in the next 1,000 years. Considering just the expansion of warming ocean waters—without melting glaciers and polar ice sheets—the authors find that the irreversible global average sea level rise by the year 3000 would be at least 1.3-3.2 feet (0.4-1.0 meter) if CO₂ peaks at 600 parts per million, and double that amount if CO₂ peaks at 1,000 parts per million.

“Additional contributions to sea level rise from the melting of glaciers and polar ice sheets are too uncertain to quantify in the same way,” said Solomon. “They could be even larger but we just don’t have the same level of knowledge about those terms. We presented the minimum sea level rise that we can expect from well-understood physics, and we were surprised that it was so large.”

Rising sea levels would cause “…irreversible commitments to future changes in the geography of the Earth, since many coastal and island features would ultimately become submerged,” the authors write.

Geoengineering to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere was not considered in the study. “Ideas about taking the carbon dioxide away after the world puts it in have been proposed, but right now those are very speculative,” said Solomon.

The authors relied on measurements as well as many different models to support the understanding of their results. They focused on drying of particular regions and on thermal expansion of the ocean because observations suggest that humans are contributing to changes that have already been measured.

Besides Solomon, the study’s authors are Gian-Kasper Plattner and Reto Knutti of ETH Zurich, Switzerland, and Pierre Friedlingstein of Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Gif-Sur-Yvette, France.

NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.

The latest CO2 measurements are current and will change as soon as recorded by scientists.

The Ultimatum Game is a deceptively simple test of human economic attitude.

It goes like this:   The experimenter tells two subjects that he will give one of them a sum of money that they may split.   One person will decide how much to give to the other.  The other person may accept or reject the offer.   If accepted then both keep whatever money they hold.   However, if the other person deems it unfair then by refusing money prevents both of them from getting any cash.   Session over.   The test is given once only.

In examining the results for the Ultimatum Game it seems that many groups will accept a small percentage.   If the experimenter gave 100 dollars, then $5 might suffice.   This changed with Western subjects, who measured 30-40%… meaning they were willing to cut off all wealth until that fairness level.  Some even insisted on 50%.

Economists used to think that we, as rational actors, would always choose the best deal.   The irrational choice of cutting off all money and ending play - was difficult to understand.   Was it the sense of fairness?   Game theory and behavioral economics are pretty new fields of study.   One can see how it may apply to the economics of global warming.

A related experiment is the dictator game where the players who make the offers get to keep their share no matter what.   Predictably they make less equal offers, keeping more of the cash.   The second mover always accepted unequal money.

So one privileged person, shares a bit with someone less privileged.  The less privilegled fellow see this is fine, until he sees the privileged one cross some sort of line that is going too far…. like Billion dollar fortunes from bailouts that will raise taxes and condemn our future.  And like a carbon fuel industry selling a dangerous product that kills our future.  That crosses the line.  Increased stakes seem to make subjects more pliant toward small rewards

The privileged ones get vast wealth, vast - the recipient has generations of cheap power, cheap electricity, cheap mortgages, rising value of real estate, easy credit, rising stocks.  The wealth runoff to the recipient is a very small fraction of the vast wealth.

It is easy to apply this to modern economics - Think of a great experimenter bestowing vast free wealth to humans in the form of Forests, Ocean harvests, Mining ores, and Oil and coal.  All were thought to be essentially free, bestowed like money in the Ultimatum Game experiment.  The initial recipients redistributing a portion of the wealth to all others: employees, clients, stock holders and consumers.   The ratio of owner wealth to consumer wealth is something other than 0 and certainly not 100% - At some time it might have been 5% and now maybe 30% [Students in economics will write many papers describing the percentage of this wealth.]  Was it 30%?

The implicit rule of this real life Ultimatum Game is an honest description of the terms of the deal, and promise of safety.

The Ultimatum Game starts with the agreement that all the costs will be known.   Free coal is dug and sold cheaply, and we get warm electricity.   But the soot and CO2 poison life itself and our 30% share (or whatever percentage) is gone - reduced to nothing - or vastly lower.

So the Ultimatum Game is that human recipients are beginning to demand a halt to this play - asking for a new agreement.   The carbon fuel companies have reduced the cost of oil, kept coal cheap in effort to move up the percentage of wealth offered to the others.   We tacitly accept, keep driving and heating and continue the game.

Now however we are about to feel the true cost of the carbon economy.   Any further CO2 output moves our species demise closer.   Even a payoff all the way to 100% is not a good deal if no one survives.   Many will ask the game play canceled.

Those who adopt the dictator stance of economic transaction will be rudely shocked to discover that C02 and atmospheric science does not negotiate with economists.

Richard Pauli

More reading in behavioral economics and global warming:

“The policy recommendations of most economists are based on the rational actor model of human behavior. Behavior is assumed to be self-regarding, preferences are assumed to be stable, and decisions are assumed to be unaffected by social context or frame of reference. The related fields of behavioral economics, game theory, and neuroscience have confirmed that human behavior is other regarding, and that people exhibit systematic patterns of decision-making that are “irrational” according to the standard behavioral model…. the standard economic approach to climate change policy, with its almost exclusive emphasis on rational responses to monetary incentives, is seriously flawed. In fact, monetary incentives may actually be counter-productive. Humans are unique among animal species in their ability to cooperate across cultures, geographical space and generations. Tapping into this uniquely human attribute, and understanding how cooperation is enforced, holds the key to limiting the potentially calamitous effects of global climate change.” http://www.economics.rpi.edu/workingpapers/rpi0701.pdf

Cross posted to http:theboywhodeniedwolf.com